{"F": {"ts_code": "002738.SZ", "name": "中矿资源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.39, "pe_ttm": 23.8516, "pb": 2.7141, "dv_ttm": 1.0221, "total_mv": 3529493.5311, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.1, 48.5, 53.0, 54.8, 32.8, 25.5], "rev_series": [12.8, 23.9, 80.4, 60.1, 53.6, 65.5], "np_series": [1.7, 5.6, 32.9, 22.1, 7.6, 4.6], "roe_series": [5.9, 15.4, 56.9, 22.4, 6.2, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 69.4, "np_ttm": 14.8, "ocf_ttm": 17.3, "fcf_ttm": -8.2, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 48.5, "gm_std": 11.7, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 10.9, "npm_median": 23.2, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 21.7, "fix_assets": 45.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.8, "pb_calc": 2.71, "capex_dep": 8.23, "interest_debt": 47.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 13.4, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.6, "np_cagr3": -48.2, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": 1146.8, "np_vol": 213.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 12.9, "fwd_pe2": 8.6, "fwd_g1": 84.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 0.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["销售商品", 48.0], ["经营租赁", 2.0], ["提供服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 126.2, "ret_prev2_year": -2.3, "ret_ytd": -38.0, "ret_pivot": 77.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.9, "ret_60": -17.6, "ret_120": -36.6, "ret_250": 20.6, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 62.0, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 70, "hard": 35, "bondness": 48}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.9 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 48.5%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.5%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.5%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 8.23 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.9 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -18% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "中矿资源:PE 比行业中位低 13.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.2个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}