{"F": {"ts_code": "002737.SZ", "name": "葵花药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.83, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7636, "dv_ttm": 1.6906, "total_mv": 690872.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.1, 59.3, 57.7, 56.3, 44.9, 38.2], "rev_series": [34.6, 44.6, 50.9, 57.0, 33.8, 23.2], "np_series": [5.8, 7.0, 8.7, 11.2, 4.9, -2.6], "roe_series": [18.3, 20.5, 21.9, 25.0, 10.8, -6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.1, "np_ttm": -2.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 56.3, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 17.1, "roe_median": 20.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.5, "fix_assets": 11.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 1.76, "capex_dep": 0.96, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 23.2, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 68.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -23.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": -2.3, "np_vol": 70.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["中成药", 32.0], ["化学药", 14.0], ["营养保健品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.4, "ret_prev2_year": -16.8, "ret_ytd": -18.8, "ret_pivot": -33.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -1.1, "ret_120": -5.3, "ret_250": -26.7, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 25.5, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 65, "hard": 34, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 23%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.3%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -1% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "葵花药业:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}