{"F": {"ts_code": "002735.SZ", "name": "王子新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.91, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8611, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 446927.8713, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 20.7, 17.7, 20.1, 16.8, 13.6], "rev_series": [15.4, 17.4, 17.5, 17.7, 19.9, 21.6], "np_series": [0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, -0.7, -1.6], "roe_series": [12.1, 10.2, 8.1, 4.5, -3.9, -9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.8, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.2, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.86, "capex_dep": 2.64, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 42.8, "debt_mv": 9.1, "payout": 22.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.2, "np_yoy": -28.9, "np_vol": 83.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 99.2, "fwd_pe2": 41.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 142.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["塑料包装产品", 19.0], ["包装", 19.0], ["薄膜电容器", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.0, "ret_prev2_year": -28.5, "ret_ytd": -33.9, "ret_pivot": 50.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": -38.6, "ret_120": -30.3, "ret_250": -27.0, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 44, "bondness": 36}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 43%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 2.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -39% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "王子新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}