{"F": {"ts_code": "002734.SZ", "name": "利民股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.8, "pe_ttm": 16.3406, "pb": 1.9682, "dv_ttm": 2.6786, "total_mv": 792327.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 22.6, 18.8, 17.0, 19.5, 26.4], "rev_series": [43.9, 47.4, 50.2, 42.2, 42.4, 45.3], "np_series": [3.9, 3.1, 2.2, 0.6, 0.8, 4.8], "roe_series": [17.4, 12.1, 8.0, 2.2, 3.0, 14.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.4, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.8, "fix_assets": 28.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 0.25, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 40.5, "debt_mv": 19.8, "payout": 117.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": 29.9, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": 1.9, "np_vol": 207.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 13.6, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["农用杀菌剂", 51.0], ["农用杀虫剂", 25.0], ["兽药", 9.0], ["农用除草剂及其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.1, "ret_prev2_year": 5.1, "ret_ytd": 8.5, "ret_pivot": 186.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": 10.2, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -42.2, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 76.3}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 43, "hard": 65, "bondness": 76}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.3 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 10% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "利民股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}