{"F": {"ts_code": "002733.SZ", "name": "雄韬股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "蓄电池及其他电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.21, "pe_ttm": 185.6132, "pb": 2.6012, "dv_ttm": 0.54, "total_mv": 699655.515, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.3, 11.6, 15.1, 18.0, 18.0, 17.6], "rev_series": [25.5, 31.1, 40.8, 36.0, 35.5, 34.8], "np_series": [0.8, -4.2, 1.6, 1.4, 1.0, 0.8], "roe_series": [2.9, -15.8, 6.2, 5.2, 3.6, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 45.1, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -20.2, "rev_yoy": 13.6, "np_yoy": -46.6, "np_vol": 275.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["蓄电池及材料", 22.0], ["锂电池及材料", 18.0], ["锂电池", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.2, "ret_prev2_year": -7.1, "ret_ytd": -6.8, "ret_pivot": 76.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": -42.0, "ret_120": -33.2, "ret_250": -15.1, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 48.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 44, "hard": 23, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 185.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 185.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -42% / -33%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "雄韬股份:PE 比行业中位高 149.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.6个百分点。"]}}