{"F": {"ts_code": "002732.SZ", "name": "燕塘乳业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.15, "pe_ttm": 60.6424, "pb": 1.4712, "dv_ttm": 0.424, "total_mv": 222650.25, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 27.8, 23.5, 26.0, 25.3, 24.9], "rev_series": [16.4, 19.8, 18.8, 19.5, 17.3, 15.9], "np_series": [1.0, 1.6, 1.0, 1.8, 1.0, 0.6], "roe_series": [10.2, 14.2, 8.2, 13.6, 7.2, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.7, "fix_assets": 9.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 24.3, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 16.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": -16.6, "rev_yoy": -2.1, "np_yoy": -59.8, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["乳酸菌乳饮料类", 15.0], ["乳酸菌乳饮料", 15.0], ["液体乳类", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": -17.7, "ret_ytd": -16.6, "ret_pivot": 4.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -19.5, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 27.4, "pos_52w": 70.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 49, "hard": 78, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 60.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "燕塘乳业:PE 比行业中位高 31.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.0个百分点。"]}}