{"F": {"ts_code": "002729.SZ", "name": "好利科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140912", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.96, "pe_ttm": 84.7644, "pb": 4.5056, "dv_ttm": 0.2006, "total_mv": 255425.9804, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.9, 34.4, 37.3, 32.3, 33.3, 35.3], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.2, 2.5, 2.7, 3.8, 4.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.5, 5.6, 6.7, 3.8, 7.3, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.7, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.51, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 18.6, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 14.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.9, "np_cagr3": 16.6, "rev_yoy": 3.0, "np_yoy": -56.3, "np_vol": 58.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["电力熔断器及配件", 24.0], ["电力熔断器", 24.0], ["电子熔断器及配件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.0, "ret_prev2_year": -44.9, "ret_ytd": -12.8, "ret_pivot": 34.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -16.5, "ret_120": -28.1, "ret_250": -10.1, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 64.7}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 55, "hard": 46, "bondness": 9}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 84.8 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.4%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -16% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "好利科技:PE 比行业中位高 33.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.0个百分点。"]}}