{"F": {"ts_code": "002719.SZ", "name": "ST麦趣", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "烘焙食品", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 16.5573, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 120678.6735, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.9, 19.3, 14.7, 17.8, 16.2, 22.5], "rev_series": [8.8, 11.5, 9.9, 7.1, 6.4, 6.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.2, -3.5, -1.0, -2.3, -1.0], "roe_series": [6.2, 2.1, -48.9, -19.3, -67.7, -59.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.5, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": -17.3, "roe_median": -48.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.9, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 16.56, "capex_dep": 0.14, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 92.8, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -15.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -18.2, "np_yoy": -3108.7, "np_vol": 796.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["烘焙食品", 28.0], ["乳制品", 15.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.1, "ret_prev2_year": -32.4, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 19.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.3, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -26.4, "ret_250": -30.9, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 44.5, "pos_52w": 67.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 99, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 62%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点;资产负债率 93%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 0.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -3% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "ST麦趣:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点。"]}}