{"F": {"ts_code": "002718.SZ", "name": "友邦吊顶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 84.18, "pe_ttm": 8283.9138, "pb": 11.8632, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1089691.5804, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 26.4, 27.2, 28.2, 24.8, 25.7], "rev_series": [7.6, 9.8, 9.5, 10.0, 6.2, 5.0], "np_series": [0.8, -3.3, 1.0, 0.6, -1.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [6.5, -29.0, 9.5, 5.9, -11.4, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.0, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.86, "capex_dep": 0.06, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 24.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -19.4, "np_cagr3": -49.8, "rev_yoy": -20.3, "np_yoy": -108.8, "np_vol": 241.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["基础模块", 46.0], ["功能模块", 37.0], ["墙柜模块", 7.0], ["辅助模块", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 193.9, "ret_prev2_year": -27.2, "ret_ytd": 134.2, "ret_pivot": 830.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -13.7, "ret_120": 40.7, "ret_250": 334.6, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 65.4, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 78, "bondness": 37}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 8284 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 25%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8283.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 335%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -14% / 41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "友邦吊顶:PE 比行业中位高 8247.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.2个百分点。"]}}