{"F": {"ts_code": "002716.SZ", "name": "湖南白银", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "白银", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.22, "pe_ttm": 70.9995, "pb": 7.7908, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3167505.5214, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-37.6, 6.8, 0.2, 1.7, 6.5, 6.6], "rev_series": [12.1, 19.9, 33.9, 51.4, 83.1, 124.4], "np_series": [2.2, 0.1, -1.7, -1.6, 1.7, 3.4], "roe_series": [33.6, 0.8, -8.7, -9.2, 6.9, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 166.4, "np_ttm": 4.5, "ocf_ttm": -5.8, "fcf_ttm": -7.5, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -1.8, "gm_median": 6.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": 37.8, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.79, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 16.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 54.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 92.5, "np_yoy": 170.3, "np_vol": 518.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["白银", 67.0], ["黄金", 12.0], ["银深加工产品", 5.0], ["电铅", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.1, "ret_prev2_year": 20.2, "ret_ytd": 62.1, "ret_pivot": 282.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.4, "ret_60": 29.3, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": 108.2, "mdd_250": -67.6, "vol_250": 73.0, "pos_52w": 53.0}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 6}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 4.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 71 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 6.5%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.5%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 37.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 108%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 29% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "湖南白银:PE 比行业中位高 40.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点。"]}}