{"F": {"ts_code": "002715.SZ", "name": "登云股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.03, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.19, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 193614.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 26.5, 23.3, 29.6, 27.3, 23.8], "rev_series": [3.7, 4.9, 5.1, 5.4, 5.1, 5.2], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, -1.3, 0.2, 0.1, -0.2], "roe_series": [3.1, 1.3, -29.2, 5.9, 1.2, -3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 26.5, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.19, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 12.5, "payout": 86.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.3, "np_yoy": 16.2, "np_vol": 783.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["配套产品柴油机气门", 23.0], ["柴油机气门", 23.0], ["维修市场气门", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.2, "ret_prev2_year": -8.5, "ret_ytd": -19.2, "ret_pivot": 34.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": -2.6, "ret_120": -11.9, "ret_250": -33.9, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 49.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 61, "bondness": 64}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -3% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "登云股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}