{"F": {"ts_code": "002712.SZ", "name": "思美传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0177, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 278669.4144, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.3, 7.2, 5.7, 4.0, 3.9, 2.9], "rev_series": [39.6, 44.5, 41.9, 55.6, 61.8, 76.8], "np_series": [-11.5, 0.6, -4.1, -1.3, -0.3, -0.6], "roe_series": [-45.6, 3.0, -23.2, -9.0, -2.4, -4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 4.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -0.7, "roe_median": -4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.02, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": 18.2, "debt_ratio": 49.8, "debt_mv": 26.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 22.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.1, "np_yoy": 108.9, "np_vol": 338.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["营销服务", 50.0], ["数字版权运营及服务", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.0, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 41.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": -6.4, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -44.4, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 0, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.0%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 9% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "思美传媒:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}