{"F": {"ts_code": "002709.SZ", "name": "天赐材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.83, "pe_ttm": 17.4375, "pb": 3.4, "dv_ttm": 1.3243, "total_mv": 6896454.2311, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 35.0, 38.0, 25.9, 18.9, 22.2], "rev_series": [41.2, 110.9, 223.2, 154.0, 125.2, 166.5], "np_series": [5.3, 22.1, 57.1, 18.9, 4.8, 13.6], "roe_series": [17.3, 41.9, 58.0, 14.6, 3.7, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 243.3, "np_ttm": 39.5, "ocf_ttm": 11.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 7.3, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.6, "fix_assets": 98.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 3.4, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 29.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": -38.0, "rev_yoy": 109.3, "np_yoy": 967.9, "np_vol": 151.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 10.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.2, "fwd_g1": 65.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂离子电池材料产品", 47.0], ["锂离子电池材料", 47.0], ["日化材料及特种化学品", 2.0], ["个人护理品材料产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 138.6, "ret_prev2_year": -20.8, "ret_ytd": -26.4, "ret_pivot": 167.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.8, "ret_60": -30.0, "ret_120": -30.2, "ret_250": 64.2, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 61.8, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 48, "hard": 49, "bondness": 43}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 968%,PE TTM 17.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 10.5 倍,PEG 0.70。", "自由现金流 3.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 15%(20 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.4 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -30% / -30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "天赐材料:PE 比行业中位低 18.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点。"]}}