{"F": {"ts_code": "002708.SZ", "name": "光洋股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.27, "pe_ttm": 81.5644, "pb": 4.7342, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 858323.646, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 13.4, 2.7, 9.6, 14.6, 17.0], "rev_series": [14.3, 16.2, 14.9, 18.2, 23.1, 27.2], "np_series": [0.5, -0.8, -2.3, -1.2, 0.5, 1.0], "roe_series": [3.5, -5.6, -17.5, -8.0, 3.0, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -16.0, "npm_median": -5.0, "roe_median": -5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.73, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 18.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 60.5, "debt_mv": 21.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 22.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.4, "np_yoy": 8.0, "np_vol": 162.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 29.4, "fwd_pe2": 20.6, "fwd_g1": 178.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轴承产品", 25.0], ["同步器行星排产品", 12.0], ["线路板业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.2, "ret_prev2_year": 34.5, "ret_ytd": 15.0, "ret_pivot": 123.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 45.2, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": 20.1, "ret_250": 14.7, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 51.6, "pos_52w": 95.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 32, "hard": 41, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 82 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 45% / 11% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "光洋股份:PE 比行业中位高 51.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}