{"F": {"ts_code": "002707.SZ", "name": "众信旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "旅游综合", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.55, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.8772, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 545406.825, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-17.5, 6.0, 13.1, 11.6, 13.0, 12.0], "rev_series": [15.6, 6.8, 5.0, 33.0, 64.6, 68.2], "np_series": [-14.8, -4.6, -2.2, 0.3, 1.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-91.0, -79.4, -42.2, 4.4, 13.2, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 67.5, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 30.6, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.88, "capex_dep": 3.26, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 74.5, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 138.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.6, "np_yoy": -24.1, "np_vol": 103.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 105.7, "fwd_pe2": 69.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 2.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["旅游批发产品", 24.0], ["旅游批发", 24.0], ["旅游零售产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.7, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": -8.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": 4.9, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -31.0, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 34.2, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 15, "bondness": 2}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 30.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 5% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "众信旅游:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.3个百分点。"]}}