{"F": {"ts_code": "002706.SZ", "name": "良信股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.66, "pe_ttm": 62.7942, "pb": 2.5716, "dv_ttm": 2.0256, "total_mv": 1084938.75, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.3, 35.2, 30.6, 32.4, 30.4, 29.2], "rev_series": [30.2, 40.3, 41.6, 45.9, 42.4, 44.8], "np_series": [3.8, 4.2, 4.2, 5.1, 3.1, 2.7], "roe_series": [19.5, 19.7, 14.2, 13.0, 7.7, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.7, "fix_assets": 20.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 32.4, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 78.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.6, "np_cagr3": -14.3, "rev_yoy": 8.8, "np_yoy": -37.5, "np_vol": 21.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 33.3, "fwd_pe2": 24.7, "fwd_g1": 88.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["配电电器", 62.0], ["终端电器", 20.0], ["控制电器", 13.0], ["物联网仪表", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.0, "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_pivot": 73.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": -15.9, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -42.2, "vol_250": 57.6, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 52, "hard": 52, "bondness": 58}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 21 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.4%,股息率 2.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 92%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 30.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -16% / -17%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "良信股份:PE 比行业中位高 19.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.8个百分点。"]}}