{"F": {"ts_code": "002702.SZ", "name": "海欣食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20121011", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.61, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0853, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 311781.4161, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.6, 19.2, 22.5, 19.7, 18.5, 20.4], "rev_series": [16.1, 15.5, 16.2, 17.2, 17.1, 15.2], "np_series": [0.7, -0.3, 0.6, 0.0, -0.4, -0.5], "roe_series": [8.7, -4.3, 7.8, 0.2, -3.3, -4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.6, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": -2.2, "roe_median": -3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.5, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 3.09, "capex_dep": 1.35, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 11.2, "payout": 888.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 23.3, "np_yoy": 27.6, "np_vol": 707.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["速冻鱼肉制品及肉制品", 29.0], ["速冻菜肴制品", 10.0], ["常温休闲食品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.2, "ret_prev2_year": -30.8, "ret_ytd": -21.2, "ret_pivot": 78.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.9, "ret_60": 12.2, "ret_120": -4.1, "ret_250": 25.2, "mdd_250": -63.1, "vol_250": 58.2, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 74, "bondness": 67}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 1.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 12% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "海欣食品:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.0个百分点。"]}}