{"F": {"ts_code": "002698.SZ", "name": "博实股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120911", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.94, "pe_ttm": 23.4377, "pb": 2.9484, "dv_ttm": 2.0938, "total_mv": 1220938.5504, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.0, 38.3, 37.0, 36.6, 33.4, 35.7], "rev_series": [18.3, 21.1, 21.5, 25.7, 28.6, 28.3], "np_series": [4.1, 4.9, 4.5, 5.3, 5.2, 5.6], "roe_series": [16.7, 18.0, 14.7, 16.1, 14.5, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.3, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 36.6, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 20.8, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.2, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 47.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": 8.2, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": -15.4, "np_vol": 11.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["固体物料后处理智能制造装备", 17.0], ["运营、售后类工业服务", 11.0], ["运维、售后类工业服务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": 14.3, "ret_ytd": -27.9, "ret_pivot": 5.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.7, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -39.2, "vol_250": 41.0, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 56, "hard": 8, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.4 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.6%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.6%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / 6% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "博实股份:PE 比行业中位低 54.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点。"]}}