{"F": {"ts_code": "002695.SZ", "name": "煌上煌", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "熟食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120905", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.67, "pe_ttm": 65.6591, "pb": 2.1355, "dv_ttm": 0.9372, "total_mv": 597078.0486, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.8, 33.0, 28.2, 29.1, 32.8, 32.3], "rev_series": [24.4, 23.4, 19.5, 19.2, 17.4, 16.8], "np_series": [2.8, 1.4, 0.3, 0.7, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [12.3, 6.1, 1.3, 2.7, 1.5, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.3, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 32.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.0, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 8.2, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 2.2, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 23.8, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 145.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": 38.3, "rev_yoy": 24.5, "np_yoy": 12.1, "np_vol": 85.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 43.3, "fwd_pe2": 36.8, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 2.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鲜货产品", 32.0], ["米制品业务", 20.0], ["冻干食品", 18.0], ["冻干制品", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.9, "ret_prev2_year": -17.5, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 76.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": 5.3, "ret_250": -16.8, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 76.1}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 53, "hard": 56, "bondness": 62}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 14 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.9%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 92%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(毛利率 32.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 2.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -8% / 5%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "煌上煌:PE 比行业中位高 44.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点。"]}}