{"F": {"ts_code": "002693.SZ", "name": "双成药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.75, "pe_ttm": 70.9564, "pb": 8.516, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 362853.575, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [77.7, 74.6, 67.9, 68.3, 56.0, 54.7], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.2, 2.7, 2.4, 1.7, 2.8], "np_series": [-0.5, -0.2, 0.1, -0.5, -0.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [-10.3, -4.2, 1.8, -10.3, -18.1, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 67.9, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -9.8, "npm_median": -12.7, "roe_median": -4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.7, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.52, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 47.0, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": 28.3, "rev_yoy": 39.3, "np_yoy": 173.8, "np_vol": 300.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["复杂制剂", 50.0], ["多肽类产品", 27.0], ["受托业务", 12.0], ["其他收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -62.0, "ret_prev2_year": 144.1, "ret_ytd": 25.7, "ret_pivot": -13.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.0, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": 14.1, "ret_250": 7.0, "mdd_250": -28.7, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 69, "hard": 78, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 71 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 49%、毛利率 67.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -3% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "双成药业:PE 比行业中位高 33.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点。"]}}