{"F": {"ts_code": "002691.SZ", "name": "*ST冀凯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.994, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 156400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 33.4, 34.7, 24.9, 26.5, 23.5], "rev_series": [2.4, 3.6, 3.3, 3.4, 3.8, 3.0], "np_series": [-0.2, 0.2, 0.1, -0.0, -0.0, -0.5], "roe_series": [-1.9, 1.9, 1.5, -0.2, -0.2, -6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -6.4, "ocf_yield": -5.5, "gm_median": 26.5, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": -0.4, "roe_median": -0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.6, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 32.8, "debt_mv": 15.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.1, "np_yoy": -87.5, "np_vol": 1187.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["运输机械", 51.0], ["安全钻车", 18.0], ["安全钻机", 18.0], ["其他业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.9, "ret_prev2_year": -32.4, "ret_ytd": -49.2, "ret_pivot": -6.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -43.3, "ret_250": -46.1, "mdd_250": -70.3, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 40.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 51, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.4%(经营现金流/市值 -5.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -70%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -1% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "*ST冀凯:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点。"]}}