{"F": {"ts_code": "002688.SZ", "name": "金河生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "动物保健Ⅱ", "sw3": "动物保健Ⅲ", "ind": "动物保健Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.28, "pe_ttm": 215.3374, "pb": 1.9468, "dv_ttm": 1.7092, "total_mv": 442135.4261, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.7, 31.3, 28.9, 29.6, 33.5, 33.9], "rev_series": [18.1, 20.8, 21.2, 21.7, 23.7, 28.8], "np_series": [1.2, 0.9, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [7.1, 4.6, 3.2, 3.9, 4.5, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 5.9, "ocf_yield": 13.3, "gm_median": 31.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.3, "fix_assets": 23.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.9, "pb_calc": 1.95, "capex_dep": 1.65, "interest_debt": 23.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 56.1, "debt_mv": 53.5, "payout": 90.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.7, "np_cagr3": -28.5, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": -5.1, "np_vol": 32.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["兽用化学药品", 29.0], ["淀粉及联产品", 11.0], ["兽用疫苗", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.0, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": 60.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 33.0, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 66, "bondness": 63}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 23 亿,占总资产 41%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 5.9%,股息率 1.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 98%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 41%)和定价权(毛利率 31.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.9%(经营现金流/市值 13.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 215.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 8% / -16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「动物保健Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 37.8 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 39.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 64%。", "金河生物:PE 比行业中位高 177.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}