{"F": {"ts_code": "002687.SZ", "name": "乔治白", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.18, "pe_ttm": 37.8112, "pb": 2.0472, "dv_ttm": 1.3204, "total_mv": 311953.731, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.4, 52.2, 47.0, 49.9, 49.7, 46.7], "rev_series": [10.9, 13.0, 12.8, 14.9, 12.6, 12.6], "np_series": [1.4, 1.9, 1.2, 2.0, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [12.0, 14.5, 9.2, 14.1, 5.9, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 49.7, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 19.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.5, "np_cagr3": -11.1, "rev_yoy": -0.7, "np_yoy": -20.0, "np_vol": 44.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 34.3, "fwd_pe2": 29.4, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 2.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["其他主营业务", 24.0], ["其他", 24.0], ["上衣", 22.0], ["衬衫", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.2, "ret_prev2_year": -14.1, "ret_ytd": 30.5, "ret_pivot": 66.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.4, "ret_60": 47.8, "ret_120": 19.4, "ret_250": 31.6, "mdd_250": -21.5, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 93.4}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 64, "hard": 31, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.8 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 49.7%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.7%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 32%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 48% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "乔治白:PE 比行业中位高 0.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}