{"F": {"ts_code": "002685.SZ", "name": "华东重机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.43, "pe_ttm": 53.3109, "pb": 3.3018, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 547175.9958, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.9, 4.4, 10.4, 7.0, 12.4, 28.2], "rev_series": [76.3, 70.6, 14.8, 6.7, 11.8, 8.0], "np_series": [-10.7, -14.1, -1.8, -8.1, 1.2, 0.7], "roe_series": [-24.5, -45.2, -7.7, -44.2, 8.3, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 10.4, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.2, "gm_chg_2022": 7.5, "npm_median": -12.1, "roe_median": -7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 3.3, "capex_dep": 8.77, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 32.2, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -18.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 108.0, "np_yoy": 137.3, "np_vol": 166.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.9, "fwd_g1": 214.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["集装箱装卸设备", 49.0], ["芯片领域产品", 1.0], ["芯片产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.3, "ret_prev2_year": 88.5, "ret_ytd": -27.5, "ret_pivot": 72.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -17.0, "ret_120": -22.0, "ret_250": -38.9, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 46.9, "pos_52w": 55.6}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 23, "hard": 14, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 53 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%,稳定度 20%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 8.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.3 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -17% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "华东重机:PE 比行业中位高 25.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点。"]}}