{"F": {"ts_code": "002683.SZ", "name": "广东宏大", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.94, "pe_ttm": 24.1518, "pb": 3.3194, "dv_ttm": 2.0833, "total_mv": 2351084.4994, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 20.3, 18.9, 20.7, 21.3, 20.9], "rev_series": [63.9, 85.3, 101.7, 115.4, 136.5, 203.7], "np_series": [4.0, 4.8, 5.6, 7.2, 9.0, 9.6], "roe_series": [9.4, 8.8, 9.7, 11.5, 13.9, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 213.6, "np_ttm": 9.7, "ocf_ttm": 15.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 20.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 79.1, "goodwill_ratio": 10.4, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": 1.36, "interest_debt": 112.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 57.1, "debt_mv": 47.9, "payout": 55.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.1, "np_cagr3": 19.5, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": 3.2, "np_vol": 7.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 18.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["露天矿山采剥", 19.0], ["露天矿山开采", 19.0], ["地下矿山开采", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.6, "ret_prev2_year": 39.3, "ret_ytd": -34.7, "ret_pivot": 62.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": -30.5, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -52.4, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 57.9}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 49, "hard": 36, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.2 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.36 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 4% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "广东宏大:PE 比行业中位低 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点。"]}}