{"F": {"ts_code": "002681.SZ", "name": "奋达科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.1535, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 890147.4912, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.4, 9.8, 19.9, 21.7, 23.0, 20.2], "rev_series": [35.4, 41.7, 28.7, 28.9, 31.4, 27.1], "np_series": [10.7, 0.5, 1.1, 0.4, 1.0, -0.8], "roe_series": [48.0, 0.4, 4.7, 2.0, 4.2, -3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.0, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 20.2, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.15, "capex_dep": 0.36, "interest_debt": 13.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 15.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": -78.6, "np_vol": 469.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["电声产品", 15.0], ["多媒体音箱", 15.0], ["美发小家电", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.6, "ret_prev2_year": 26.1, "ret_ytd": -25.4, "ret_pivot": 28.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -30.9, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 9, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "奋达科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.1个百分点。"]}}