{"F": {"ts_code": "002679.SZ", "name": "福建金森", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "林业Ⅱ", "sw3": "林业Ⅲ", "ind": "林业Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.68, "pe_ttm": 167.1917, "pb": 3.3756, "dv_ttm": 0.2715, "total_mv": 251787.408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.7, 50.2, 53.4, 52.7, 57.1, 38.5], "rev_series": [1.5, 1.9, 1.7, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [1.2, 1.7, 1.3, 1.1, 1.4, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 52.7, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.0, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.38, "capex_dep": 3.69, "interest_debt": 11.6, "debt_ebitda": 19.3, "debt_ratio": 61.9, "debt_mv": 45.9, "payout": 85.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": -9.5, "np_yoy": 30.0, "np_vol": 28.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["杉木-杉小径", 10.0], ["杉小径", 10.0], ["生物质燃料颗粒", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.6, "ret_prev2_year": -34.2, "ret_ytd": -9.0, "ret_pivot": 57.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 21.8, "ret_60": 22.6, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": 1.9, "mdd_250": -54.6, "vol_250": 56.0, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 61, "hard": 5, "bondness": 66}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 167.2 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 52.7%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 19.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.7%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 3.69 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 167.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 23% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「林业Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 167.2 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 85%。", "福建金森:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.9个百分点。"]}}