{"F": {"ts_code": "002678.SZ", "name": "珠江钢琴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120530", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.73, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.17, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 642485.5019, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 25.4, 24.0, 20.0, 10.0, 2.7], "rev_series": [17.5, 20.2, 16.6, 11.3, 6.8, 5.7], "np_series": [1.7, 1.9, 1.2, 0.1, -2.4, -3.7], "roe_series": [4.9, 5.2, 3.3, 0.2, -6.6, -11.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -3.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 8.7, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.3, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 1.86, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -30.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.2, "np_yoy": 8.5, "np_vol": 1625.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["乐器销售及售后服务", 23.0], ["乐器销售及后服务", 23.0], ["文化服务业", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.2, "ret_prev2_year": -22.5, "ret_ytd": -11.3, "ret_pivot": 31.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": -11.8, "ret_120": -10.4, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 26, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -12% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "珠江钢琴:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}