{"F": {"ts_code": "002674.SZ", "name": "兴业科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "辅料", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.26, "pe_ttm": 60.9179, "pb": 2.8203, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 687451.626, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.8, 24.4, 19.5, 21.4, 21.4, 21.0], "rev_series": [14.6, 17.3, 19.9, 27.0, 29.5, 29.9], "np_series": [1.2, 1.8, 1.5, 1.9, 1.4, 1.0], "roe_series": [5.2, 8.2, 6.5, 7.8, 5.9, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 21.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.7, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 12.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 42.0, "debt_mv": 17.6, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 14.5, "np_cagr3": -12.3, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 36.6, "np_vol": 33.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 39.0, "fwd_pe2": 31.3, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["鞋包带用皮革", 32.0], ["汽车内饰用皮革", 14.0], ["其他用皮革", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.0, "ret_prev2_year": -18.2, "ret_ytd": 55.7, "ret_pivot": 199.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.9, "ret_60": 47.1, "ret_120": 66.4, "ret_250": 70.2, "mdd_250": -39.4, "vol_250": 65.4, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 51, "hard": 32, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 60.9 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 39.0 倍,次年 31.3 倍,PEG 1.56。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.9 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 70%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / 47% / 66%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "兴业科技:PE 比行业中位高 37.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}