{"F": {"ts_code": "002671.SZ", "name": "龙泉股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制品", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.02, "pe_ttm": 155.8931, "pb": 1.3715, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 225759.5418, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 23.9, 14.1, 26.9, 30.8, 31.9], "rev_series": [8.4, 13.8, 10.0, 11.1, 11.5, 14.6], "np_series": [-0.9, 0.2, -6.4, 0.3, 0.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [-4.3, 0.8, -34.0, 1.7, 4.0, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 9.1, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 26.9, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -11.3, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.5, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 3.9, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 39.3, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 13.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.2, "np_yoy": -88.3, "np_vol": 1526.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["PCCP等管道", 24.0], ["阀门", 12.0], ["金属管件制品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.7, "ret_prev2_year": -24.4, "ret_ytd": -23.3, "ret_pivot": 13.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -31.2, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 44, "hard": 28, "bondness": 13}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 155.9 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 155.9 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -2% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "龙泉股份:PE 比行业中位高 136.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.3个百分点。"]}}