{"F": {"ts_code": "002670.SZ", "name": "国盛证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120416", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.73, "pe_ttm": 88.1933, "pb": 2.1374, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2463362.6958, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-4.1, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 17.9], "np_series": [-3.7, 0.8, -4.4, -0.3, 1.7, 2.7], "roe_series": [-3.2, 0.7, -3.9, -0.3, 1.5, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.1, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 44.4, "fcf_ttm": 43.9, "fcf_yield": 17.8, "ocf_yield": 18.0, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 15.3, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.7, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 23.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 78.0, "debt_mv": 9.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1232.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": 3.0, "np_vol": 422.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入合计", 16.0], ["产品", 16.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：证券经纪业务净收入：证券经纪", 13.0], ["证券经纪业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.6, "ret_prev2_year": 40.5, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": 42.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.9, "ret_60": 14.1, "ret_120": -17.4, "ret_250": -34.4, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 42.4, "pos_52w": 52.3}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 3}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["国盛证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 0.7%,PB 2.14倍,股息率 —,分红率 —。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 1.1%(1/PE)与股息率 — 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 14% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "国盛证券:PE 比行业中位高 72.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}