{"F": {"ts_code": "002666.SZ", "name": "德联集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.22, "pe_ttm": 78.5188, "pb": 0.9336, "dv_ttm": 2.142, "total_mv": 332535.7046, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 13.4, 11.1, 9.9, 13.0, 11.0], "rev_series": [44.7, 51.9, 48.8, 56.9, 49.6, 56.9], "np_series": [2.3, 2.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [7.5, 7.6, 1.2, 1.3, 2.0, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.9, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 1.5, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 31.8, "debt_mv": 28.1, "payout": 131.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": 3.7, "rev_yoy": -3.7, "np_yoy": -5.5, "np_vol": 46.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车精细化学品收入", 27.0], ["汽车精细化学品", 27.0], ["汽车销售及相关服务", 20.0], ["汽车销售与维修", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.6, "ret_ytd": -23.4, "ret_pivot": 21.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -30.0, "ret_250": -19.1, "mdd_250": -39.4, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 42, "hard": 29, "bondness": 78}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 78.5 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 78.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -1% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "德联集团:PE 比行业中位高 42.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.2个百分点。"]}}