{"F": {"ts_code": "002664.SZ", "name": "信质集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.2, "pe_ttm": 46.2842, "pb": 1.7415, "dv_ttm": 0.3947, "total_mv": 620464.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.6, 13.6, 11.6, 13.8, 8.5, 11.0], "rev_series": [28.8, 33.6, 37.2, 46.2, 59.2, 61.0], "np_series": [3.2, 2.0, 2.1, 2.4, 0.2, 1.3], "roe_series": [12.2, 7.2, 7.0, 7.5, 0.6, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 63.6, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.8, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.4, "fix_assets": 42.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 2.13, "interest_debt": 37.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 69.8, "debt_mv": 60.4, "payout": 14.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.0, "np_cagr3": -14.1, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": 0.8, "np_vol": 227.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 19.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.3, "fwd_g1": 144.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零部件", 48.0], ["电动车零部件", 17.0], ["电动车配件", 17.0], ["其他业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.2, "ret_ytd": -36.4, "ret_pivot": 33.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.7, "ret_60": -12.6, "ret_120": -29.4, "ret_250": -45.7, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 50.5, "pos_52w": 45.7}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 39, "hard": 58, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 2.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -13% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "信质集团:PE 比行业中位高 16.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点。"]}}