{"F": {"ts_code": "002661.SZ", "name": "克明食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1871, "dv_ttm": 3.5259, "total_mv": 258429.3474, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.8, 15.8, 15.8, 12.4, 19.3, 20.3], "rev_series": [39.6, 43.3, 50.2, 51.8, 45.7, 43.3], "np_series": [2.9, 0.7, 1.5, -0.7, 1.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [12.2, 2.6, 6.0, -2.6, 6.0, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 11.1, "ocf_yield": 18.8, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.5, "fix_assets": 37.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.19, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 28.3, "debt_ebitda": 9.2, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 109.7, "payout": 105.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": -15.8, "rev_yoy": -0.1, "np_yoy": -146.3, "np_vol": 166.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["面条", 23.0], ["其他", 5.0], ["生猪销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.6, "ret_prev2_year": 8.4, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": 9.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 3.6, "ret_120": -14.7, "ret_250": -22.8, "mdd_250": -33.9, "vol_250": 25.5, "pos_52w": 76.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 94, "bondness": 91}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.1%(经营现金流/市值 18.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 4% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "克明食品:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.0个百分点。"]}}