{"F": {"ts_code": "002656.SZ", "name": "摩登大道", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.208, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 208055.8108, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.2, 58.2, 67.6, 70.2, 68.6, 26.6], "rev_series": [5.1, 3.9, 2.3, 2.9, 2.2, 6.0], "np_series": [0.1, -0.4, -0.4, -0.9, -0.6, -0.4], "roe_series": [1.0, -5.9, -7.7, -20.3, -17.6, -12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -3.8, "gm_median": 67.6, "gm_std": 16.4, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 20.4, "npm_median": -18.0, "roe_median": -12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.21, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 37.9, "debt_mv": 5.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 37.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 46.4, "np_yoy": 33.9, "np_vol": 255.2, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电工材料", 34.0], ["服饰及配件(自有品牌)", 8.0], ["服饰及配件(代理品牌)", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.6, "ret_prev2_year": -27.5, "ret_ytd": 3.5, "ret_pivot": 175.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -10.2, "ret_120": -3.9, "ret_250": 20.7, "mdd_250": -28.5, "vol_250": 32.3, "pos_52w": 81.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 72, "hard": 9, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 67.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.6%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -10% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "摩登大道:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}