{"F": {"ts_code": "002653.SZ", "name": "海思科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 69.19, "pe_ttm": 83.1561, "pb": 16.3913, "dv_ttm": 1.139, "total_mv": 7893835.0691, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.1, 66.0, 69.5, 71.0, 71.5, 71.2], "rev_series": [33.3, 27.7, 30.2, 33.6, 37.2, 43.9], "np_series": [6.4, 3.5, 2.8, 3.0, 4.0, 2.6], "roe_series": [24.1, 12.0, 9.4, 8.2, 9.4, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.8, "np_ttm": 9.8, "ocf_ttm": 12.0, "fcf_ttm": 9.1, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 71.0, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.3, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 16.39, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 22.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 116.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.3, "np_cagr3": -2.1, "rev_yoy": 54.7, "np_yoy": 427.0, "np_vol": 28.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 78.3, "fwd_pe2": 88.1, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": -11.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["自主生产产品", 24.0], ["其他产品(服务)", 10.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 57.0, "ret_prev2_year": 48.0, "ret_ytd": 36.9, "ret_pivot": 125.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": 42.1, "ret_120": 51.9, "ret_250": 18.1, "mdd_250": -30.6, "vol_250": 52.1, "pos_52w": 88.0}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 78, "hard": 16, "bondness": 53}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 83.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(14 篇研报)前瞻 PE 78.3 倍,次年 88.1 倍,PEG —。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 71.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 71.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 42% / 52%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "海思科:PE 比行业中位高 45.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.5个百分点。"]}}