{"F": {"ts_code": "002651.SZ", "name": "利君股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.68, "pe_ttm": 296.4143, "pb": 3.2752, "dv_ttm": 0.6912, "total_mv": 897043.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.1, 42.1, 39.9, 41.7, 39.1, 36.6], "rev_series": [8.2, 9.6, 10.2, 10.7, 7.8, 7.3], "np_series": [1.9, 2.0, 2.2, 1.2, 1.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [8.4, 8.4, 8.8, 4.6, 4.4, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 39.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 15.5, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.2, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 6.5, "pb_calc": 3.28, "capex_dep": 0.26, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 25.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.6, "np_cagr3": -36.6, "rev_yoy": 30.3, "np_yoy": -45.1, "np_vol": 26.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高压辊磨机及配套", 23.0], ["航空航天零部件制造", 13.0], ["辊系(子)", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.3, "ret_prev2_year": 6.7, "ret_ytd": -25.4, "ret_pivot": 83.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.3, "ret_60": 11.7, "ret_120": -12.4, "ret_250": -43.0, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 43.0, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 20, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 296.4 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.9%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 296.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 12% / -12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "利君股份:PE 比行业中位高 222.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}