{"F": {"ts_code": "002649.SZ", "name": "博彦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.94, "pe_ttm": 114.7794, "pb": 1.424, "dv_ttm": 1.3078, "total_mv": 587885.9924, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 26.2, 25.4, 24.9, 24.0, 22.3], "rev_series": [43.1, 55.3, 64.8, 66.0, 69.0, 66.8], "np_series": [3.3, 4.0, 3.1, 2.2, 1.2, 1.0], "roe_series": [11.4, 12.0, 8.2, 5.5, 3.0, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 24.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.8, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 7.5, "pb_calc": 1.42, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 23.8, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 72.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": -30.4, "rev_yoy": -7.1, "np_yoy": -42.9, "np_vol": 21.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 30.1, "fwd_pe2": 24.8, "fwd_g1": 281.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["研发工程服务", 24.0], ["研发工程", 24.0], ["产品及解决方案", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.5, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": 14.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": 16.0, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": -35.9, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 54, "hard": 8, "bondness": 55}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 114.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 30.1 倍,次年 24.8 倍,PEG 1.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 16% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "博彦科技:PE 比行业中位高 30.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}