{"F": {"ts_code": "002648.SZ", "name": "卫星化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.54, "pe_ttm": 10.55, "pb": 2.4384, "dv_ttm": 1.8123, "total_mv": 9277250.2578, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 31.7, 16.5, 19.8, 23.6, 22.3], "rev_series": [107.7, 285.6, 370.4, 414.9, 456.5, 460.7], "np_series": [16.6, 60.1, 30.6, 47.9, 60.7, 53.1], "roe_series": [14.5, 36.4, 15.1, 20.6, 21.8, 16.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 533.2, "np_ttm": 87.9, "ocf_ttm": 141.8, "fcf_ttm": 113.9, "fcf_yield": 12.3, "ocf_yield": 15.3, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -12.2, "npm_median": 11.5, "roe_median": 20.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.6, "fix_assets": 292.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.44, "capex_dep": 0.58, "interest_debt": 235.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 51.0, "debt_mv": 25.3, "payout": 28.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": 20.1, "rev_yoy": 30.9, "np_yoy": 126.9, "np_vol": 108.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 53.0, "earn_yield": 9.5, "consensus_n": 32, "fwd_pe": 9.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.6, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["功能化学品", 76.0], ["高分子新材料", 24.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.4, "ret_prev2_year": 33.3, "ret_ytd": 60.3, "ret_pivot": 97.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": 19.4, "ret_120": -0.8, "ret_250": 39.9, "mdd_250": -27.3, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 92.4}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 42, "hard": 60, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10.6 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.3%(经营现金流/市值 15.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.6 倍 粗算,约 53%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 19% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "卫星化学:PE 比行业中位低 25.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}