{"F": {"ts_code": "002646.SZ", "name": "天佑德酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.19, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2047, "dv_ttm": 0.0699, "total_mv": 342487.6691, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.0, 63.1, 62.0, 63.0, 59.8, 58.2], "rev_series": [7.6, 10.5, 9.8, 12.1, 12.5, 11.0], "np_series": [-1.2, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9, 0.4, 0.0], "roe_series": [-5.0, 2.5, 2.8, 3.2, 1.5, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.0, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 62.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.9, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 10.3, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": -61.5, "rev_yoy": -14.7, "np_yoy": -79.7, "np_vol": 83.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 154.1, "fwd_pe2": 93.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 64.0, "peg": 2.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["青稞白酒", 24.0], ["青稞白酒：100元(含)以上青稞白酒", 13.0], ["100元(含)以上青稞白酒", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.5, "ret_prev2_year": -20.1, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": -15.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.7, "ret_60": 5.7, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -31.3, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 27.1, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 71, "hard": 56, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 35%、毛利率 62.0% 两条都占,但所在行业(食品饮料)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 6% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "天佑德酒:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点。"]}}