{"F": {"ts_code": "002645.SZ", "name": "华宏科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.47, "pe_ttm": 28.1534, "pb": 3.0326, "dv_ttm": 0.477, "total_mv": 1315701.3388, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 15.7, 10.3, 3.7, 6.6, 10.9], "rev_series": [33.8, 67.8, 84.8, 68.8, 55.8, 78.4], "np_series": [2.3, 5.3, 4.1, -1.6, -3.6, 2.0], "roe_series": [9.2, 16.5, 10.9, -4.1, -10.1, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 102.7, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 10.3, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.4, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 9.6, "pb_calc": 3.03, "capex_dep": 2.11, "interest_debt": 12.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.6, "np_cagr3": -20.5, "rev_yoy": 77.1, "np_yoy": 330.3, "np_vol": 125.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["稀土资源综合利用", 23.0], ["再生资源运营-稀土废料综合利用", 23.0], ["磁性材料销售", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 116.4, "ret_prev2_year": -40.0, "ret_ytd": 44.2, "ret_pivot": 241.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.1, "ret_60": -42.9, "ret_120": 23.0, "ret_250": 17.3, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 64.6, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 31, "hard": 28, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 4.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 28 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -43% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "华宏科技:PE 比行业中位低 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}