{"F": {"ts_code": "002642.SZ", "name": "荣联科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.27, "pe_ttm": 281.7672, "pb": 4.0351, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 480968.8781, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.7, 12.6, 11.6, 8.8, 13.2, 13.8], "rev_series": [28.1, 35.8, 37.4, 23.8, 20.2, 19.5], "np_series": [-10.8, 0.6, 0.1, -3.6, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [-53.8, 3.9, 0.8, -27.6, 2.5, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": -2.1, "gm_median": 12.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.04, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 12.0, "debt_ratio": 54.8, "debt_mv": 11.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -19.5, "np_cagr3": 17.9, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": -35.6, "np_vol": 1243.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["系统集成", 28.0], ["技术服务", 8.0], ["技术开发与服务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.7, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": -12.1, "ret_pivot": 20.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": 5.7, "ret_120": -11.2, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 10, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 281.8 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 -2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 281.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 6% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "荣联科技:PE 比行业中位高 197.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}