{"F": {"ts_code": "002641.SZ", "name": "公元股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "管材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.93, "pe_ttm": 147.685, "pb": 0.8867, "dv_ttm": 0.504, "total_mv": 483033.8634, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 18.8, 18.3, 22.2, 19.2, 17.8], "rev_series": [70.4, 88.8, 79.8, 74.7, 66.0, 61.8], "np_series": [7.7, 5.8, 0.8, 3.6, 1.9, 0.6], "roe_series": [19.0, 11.8, 1.6, 7.0, 3.5, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_yield": 12.9, "ocf_yield": 15.6, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.9, "fix_assets": 25.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 38.5, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.2, "np_cagr3": -8.4, "rev_yoy": -0.9, "np_yoy": -66.0, "np_vol": 168.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["PVC管材管件", 16.0], ["PE管材管件", 9.0], ["灯具及组件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.7, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": -8.6, "ret_pivot": 4.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": -9.0, "mdd_250": -26.8, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 77.4}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 45, "hard": 45, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 147.7 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.9%(经营现金流/市值 15.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 147.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "公元股份:PE 比行业中位高 111.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}