{"F": {"ts_code": "002639.SZ", "name": "雪人集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "制冷空调设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.32, "pe_ttm": 705.2506, "pb": 4.2887, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1116137.2129, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.0, 13.6, 16.0, 21.6, 23.9, 21.8], "rev_series": [14.6, 20.1, 19.7, 20.3, 22.8, 25.3], "np_series": [-1.8, -1.1, -2.0, -0.2, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [-8.2, -4.8, -7.9, -0.7, 1.5, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": -1.2, "roe_median": -0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 4.29, "capex_dep": 4.09, "interest_debt": 13.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 49.4, "debt_mv": 11.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.6, "np_yoy": -77.0, "np_vol": 132.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["压缩机(组)", 24.0], ["压缩机", 24.0], ["制冰设备", 13.0], ["制冰成套系统", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 171.5, "ret_prev2_year": -8.7, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 179.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.4, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -30.9, "ret_250": 21.8, "mdd_250": -59.9, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 52.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 27, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 705 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 4.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 705.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 0% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "雪人集团:PE 比行业中位高 654.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点。"]}}