{"F": {"ts_code": "002638.SZ", "name": "勤上股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "照明设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "照明设备Ⅲ", "ind": "照明设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.31, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3036, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 619172.1433, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 12.0, 15.7, 6.1, 12.4, 15.3], "rev_series": [10.0, 10.5, 5.7, 3.3, 3.8, 3.9], "np_series": [0.5, -8.6, 0.4, -0.6, -2.5, -3.3], "roe_series": [1.3, -27.3, 1.6, -2.2, -10.5, -15.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": -3.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": -65.9, "roe_median": -10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.3, "capex_dep": 6.36, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -12.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -30.7, "np_yoy": -43.4, "np_vol": 769.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["户外庭院用品", 42.0], ["户外照明", 5.0], ["显示屏及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.0, "ret_ytd": 39.5, "ret_pivot": 135.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.2, "ret_60": 3.6, "ret_120": 5.1, "ret_250": 77.4, "mdd_250": -32.5, "vol_250": 53.3, "pos_52w": 89.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 9, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 12%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 6.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 77%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 4% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「照明设备Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 61.2 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 25.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 71%。", "勤上股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点。"]}}