{"F": {"ts_code": "002637.SZ", "name": "赞宇科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.38, "pe_ttm": 25.9421, "pb": 1.5772, "dv_ttm": 0.9302, "total_mv": 582356.438, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.8, 14.8, 5.1, 6.2, 6.9, 7.2], "rev_series": [78.0, 112.0, 112.4, 96.1, 107.9, 131.3], "np_series": [3.4, 8.0, -0.7, 0.9, 1.4, 1.8], "roe_series": [12.3, 22.9, -1.8, 2.4, 3.6, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 128.1, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.5, "gm_chg_2022": -10.7, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 32.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 27.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 57.0, "debt_mv": 47.7, "payout": 41.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.9, "np_yoy": 43.3, "np_vol": 110.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 13.2, "fwd_pe2": 9.9, "fwd_g1": 96.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["表面活性剂（含洗护用品）", 31.0], ["表面活性剂(含洗护用品)", 31.0], ["油脂化工产品", 18.0], ["油脂化学品", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.4, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": 22.2, "ret_pivot": 55.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.3, "ret_60": 8.5, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": 18.8, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 53.7, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 25, "hard": 60, "bondness": 45}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 50%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 50%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 8% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "赞宇科技:PE 比行业中位低 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}