{"F": {"ts_code": "002633.SZ", "name": "申科股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.65, "pe_ttm": 188.4759, "pb": 6.1952, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 219750.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 25.1, 20.2, 21.0, 25.1, 24.8], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.1, 2.3, 2.7, 3.2, 3.1], "np_series": [-0.3, -0.1, -0.4, -0.2, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-6.8, -2.5, -8.6, -4.5, 1.7, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": -5.5, "roe_median": -2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.8, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.2, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 51.4, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 10.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.5, "np_yoy": 197.5, "np_vol": 127.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轴承系列", 54.0], ["轴承部套件", 28.0], ["加工业务", 10.0], ["配件及其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 53.0, "ret_prev2_year": -8.0, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 102.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -23.5, "ret_250": -12.3, "mdd_250": -40.0, "vol_250": 39.1, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 54, "hard": 35, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 188 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 188.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -12% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "申科股份:PE 比行业中位高 137.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}