{"F": {"ts_code": "002632.SZ", "name": "道明光学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.53, "pe_ttm": 30.4544, "pb": 2.7457, "dv_ttm": 3.148, "total_mv": 595242.9423, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.5, 37.4, 30.5, 33.7, 34.0, 34.0], "rev_series": [12.7, 12.8, 12.9, 13.2, 14.4, 14.9], "np_series": [1.7, 0.5, 3.1, 1.6, 1.7, 2.2], "roe_series": [8.5, 2.7, 14.2, 6.9, 7.8, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 11.8, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 28.5, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 96.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": -11.0, "rev_yoy": -13.2, "np_yoy": -23.0, "np_vol": 199.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["反光材料", 57.0], ["光学材料", 14.0], ["光学显示材料", 14.0], ["新材料", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.0, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": -22.4, "ret_pivot": 50.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.1, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -27.3, "ret_250": -1.9, "mdd_250": -53.6, "vol_250": 58.7, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 54, "hard": 44, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 96%、股息率 3.1%、营收 3 年复合 5.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.0%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.5 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -2% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "道明光学:PE 比行业中位低 10.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}