{"F": {"ts_code": "002631.SZ", "name": "德尔未来", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3569, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 877808.4729, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 27.0, 23.4, 22.9, 20.8, 15.4], "rev_series": [15.7, 20.3, 19.7, 19.3, 15.2, 11.7], "np_series": [-0.3, 0.8, -0.2, 0.3, -0.9, -2.2], "roe_series": [-1.5, 4.2, -1.1, 1.8, -4.4, -10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.3, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": -2.0, "roe_median": -1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.36, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 62.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -16.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.0, "np_yoy": 60.8, "np_vol": 282.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["地板类", 21.0], ["地板", 21.0], ["定制衣柜", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.0, "ret_prev2_year": -27.1, "ret_ytd": 84.1, "ret_pivot": 186.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 26.8, "ret_60": 42.1, "ret_120": 38.5, "ret_250": 122.9, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 62.8, "pos_52w": 95.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 12, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 123%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 42% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "德尔未来:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.9个百分点。"]}}