{"F": {"ts_code": "002627.SZ", "name": "三峡旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "旅游综合", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.19, "pe_ttm": 63.5385, "pb": 1.6244, "dv_ttm": 0.6794, "total_mv": 507383.4886, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.3, 14.9, 5.4, 15.3, 31.4, 34.5], "rev_series": [19.5, 21.8, 19.1, 16.0, 7.4, 7.6], "np_series": [0.5, 1.1, 0.0, 1.3, 1.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [2.2, 3.9, 0.1, 4.2, 3.8, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 10.9, "gm_stab": 0.28, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.1, "fix_assets": 15.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.62, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 16.3, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 56.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -26.5, "np_cagr3": 145.2, "rev_yoy": 13.1, "np_yoy": 25.0, "np_vol": 1144.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 30.5, "fwd_pe2": 22.7, "fwd_g1": 108.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.9, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 23.0], ["旅游综合服务", 21.0], ["旅游综合服务：旅行社业务", 10.0], ["旅游服务-旅行社业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.3, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": -2.4, "ret_pivot": 64.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.8, "ret_60": 16.9, "ret_120": -22.2, "ret_250": 27.0, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 72.2}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 21, "hard": 61, "bondness": 45}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 28%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 28%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 27%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 17% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "三峡旅游:PE 比行业中位低 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}